Rail Strategy and Planning

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Our clients tell us that one of the key railway industry challenges is understanding the future and planning the right solutions.

At GHD, we understand the challenges of rail industry. Key issues include:

  • Forecasting the impact of external changes on the demand and revenue of an operator
  • Responding to changing policy
  • Matching limited capacity to increasing demand, ensuring efficient use of rolling stock
  • Producing timetables and operating strategies that maximise the use of available track capacity, without impacting negatively on performance
  • Understanding how the business is performing against a variety of forecasts and performance indicators

Our team brings:

  • Operational experience and knowledge of the interdependencies of rail operations that provides credibility with stakeholders for proposed change
  • Rail franchising experience that helps us advise clients on the expected demand and revenue throughout the life of the franchise, how the demand will impact overcrowding and how to use growth levers such as fares to manage these
  • The modelling skills, coupled with a comprehensive understanding of PDFH principles, to manage the complexities and interdependencies faced across the railway

We help solve operators' railway planning problems and franchise bidders' conflicting challenges and targets, such as: minimising cost vs maximising revenue; maximising timetable paths vs improving performance; and minimising fleet size vs minimising overcrowding.

We also help our clients to understand their railway and implement timetable, rolling stock and fares solutions that benefit the operator and the passenger.

Services

Our team generates innovative and practical ideas using PDFH principles, in the context of the wider rail industry. This will help you:

  • Forecast the impact on demand and revenue due to external factors (GDP, population, employment and modal competition) and internal factors (timetable changes, fare strategy, crowding and major events)
  • Create and develop operating solutions to deliver wider policy or strategic objectives
  • Accommodate growing passenger numbers, using our suite of crowding models
  • Produce winning franchise bids
  • Develop appropriate fares and ticketing strategies, or review the impact of proposed/enforced fare changes
  • Improve passenger satisfaction scores
  • Plan timetables to maximise growth and revenue and to minimise cost
  • Assess the operational impact of infrastructure change, for example new stations or grade separation
  • Generate additional revenue through by identifying opportunities for modal shift
  • Better understand existing or targeted markets through detailed market reviews and railheading assessments, resulting in opportunities identified that will improve the train service to better match customers needs
  • Accommodate rolling stock change, for example, as a result of modernisation and electrification
  • Minimise fare evasion by implementing appropriate strategies informed by our revenue protection model
  • Resolve income disputes

For further information, contact:

Simon Shapiro
T:
+44 203 077 7900
E: Simon Shapiro

Arriva Trains – Great Western Franchise Bid

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Arriva Trains commissioned GHD to provide extensive technical support through both the pre-qualification and bid stages for the Great Western Franchise. GHD was the lead technical advisor for:

  • Revenue and demand forecasting, including assessment of impact of exogenous factors, rail-on-rail and modal competition, changes in service provision or quality
  • Delivery of a compliant Revenue Model with associated Record of Assumptions and Operating Manual
  • Capacity management, including advising on fleet deployment, assessment of services against specified crowding limits, impact of crowding on revenue and supporting creation of a Delivery Plan to accommodate passenger growth
  • Delivery of a compliant Crowding Model with associated Record of Assumptions and Operating Manual, providing a train-by-train, stop-by-stop view of crowding
  • Fares and revenue protection
  • Timetable specification and evaluation, including analysis of impact of net revenue and TSR compliance
  • Environment & sustainability and asset management
  • Assessment of impact of engineering work and bid writing support in respect of Delivery Plan "Management and Delivery of Infrastructure Change"

Read More . . .

Chiltern Railways – Revenue Forecasting Model

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GHD was appointed to support revenue forecasting for Chiltern Railways, which operates mainline passenger trains from Marylebone station in London to Aylesbury, Stratford, Birmingham Snow Hill and Kidderminster.

GHD used its Revenue Forecasting Model (RFM), a flexible and easy-to-use yet powerful forecasting and analysis tool, compliant with Department for Transport franchise modelling requirements. This enabled Chiltern to rapidly generate short, medium and long-term passenger forecasts. Data was analysed by revenue and volume by period, and at a disaggregated flow and ticket type level.

Read More . . .

Grand Central – West Coast Mainline

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GHD was commissioned by Grand Central to consider new business opportunities using paths available on the West Coast Mainline (WCML) in the UK.

Our task was to establish which train stations would offer most revenue when introducing additional direct services to and from London. We identified the most profitable routes (net of cost) through these stations, and established whether the routes could be timetabled and provide key elements to the response to the Office of Rail Regulation's consultation process on WCML Track Access Rights.

Read More . . .

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