GHD was commissioned by the Grand Central Railway Company to
provide Board level technical advice and analysis in the
investigation and assessment of business and service options
to address issues and opportunities being experienced in the
Grand Central is an open access operator, and as such is
completely dependent upon the revenue it can generate from
operating its services. Problems in the establishment and
introduction of the initial services had left the business with a
high degree of uncertainty in its understanding, development and
delivery of revenue. This was exacerbated by a number of corporate
and commercial disputes.
The objective, which developed over time, was to establish a
firmer understanding of the revenue base of the business, and from
this to examine product changes and management actions which could
then be evaluated and implemented to further increase revenue and
support the development plans for new services.
We then presented initial revenue forecasts and recommendations
for change to the Board, once were able to establish an
understanding of the revenue base. In addition to using the
industry standard MOIRA model and GHD’s own Revenue Forecasting
Model, GHD developed several models to estimate the revenue which
new direct services might generate, including a Passenger Choice
Model, to accurately predict competition.
Multi-million pound revenue allocation and retail disputes were
advanced through the industry processes, creating and using
evidence to establish the basis for the presentation of cases or
Intelligence gained from the development of revenue forecasts
and the resolution of revenue and retail disputes was used to
create and enumerate business strategies to improve revenue and
overall business performance, which were in turn used to establish
corporate requirements to deliver a long-term sustainable
New service opportunities on the West Coast were explored,
developed and resulted in a submission to the Office of Rail
Regulation for Track Access Rights.
GHD’s revenue forecasts have been used as the basis to drive key
business strategies and as supporting documentation in
the sale of Grand Central to Arriva Trains.