Grand Central Railway - Commercial Analysis and Advice

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GHD was commissioned by the Grand Central Railway Company to provide Board level technical advice and analysis in the investigation and assessment of business and service options to address issues and opportunities being experienced in the business.

Grand Central is an open access operator, and as such is completely dependent upon the revenue it can generate from operating its services. Problems in the establishment and introduction of the initial services had left the business with a high degree of uncertainty in its understanding, development and delivery of revenue. This was exacerbated by a number of corporate and commercial disputes.

The objective, which developed over time, was to establish a firmer understanding of the revenue base of the business, and from this to examine product changes and management actions which could then be evaluated and implemented to further increase revenue and support the development plans for new services.

We then presented initial revenue forecasts and recommendations for change to the Board, once were able to establish an understanding of the revenue base.  In addition to using the industry standard MOIRA model and GHD’s own Revenue Forecasting Model, GHD developed several models to estimate the revenue which new direct services might generate, including a Passenger Choice Model, to accurately predict competition.  

Multi-million pound revenue allocation and retail disputes were advanced through the industry processes, creating and using evidence to establish the basis for the presentation of cases or negotiation.  

Intelligence gained from the development of revenue forecasts and the resolution of revenue and retail disputes was used to create and enumerate business strategies to improve revenue and overall business performance, which were in turn used to establish corporate requirements to deliver a long-term sustainable business

New service opportunities on the West Coast were explored, developed and resulted in a submission to the Office of Rail Regulation for Track Access Rights.  

GHD’s revenue forecasts have been used as the basis to drive key business strategies and as supporting documentation in the sale of Grand Central to Arriva Trains.

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