Are you ready? planning for unplanned events in an age of uncertainty

But what happens when a more significant, unplanned, high-impact event hits the transport network, such as a cyclone, a major security incident or flash flooding? The consequences can be much more severe, and long-lasting, to the point where cities may grind to a halt, given that all manner of activities hinge on well-functioning transport networks.

Societal changes and increasingly frequent extreme weather events are among the countless factors that produce constantly evolving sets of challenges for transport networks. Such incidents put stress on the network in terms of capacity, operations, congestion, demand and safety.

It would be impossible, and also unfeasible, to design transport networks in a way that accounted for every possible unplanned event, so it is important to have practical and pragmatic plans in place that keep the city moving when the unplanned does occur.

For example, if a rail control centre was knocked out, then the necessary response would need to address the overflow of commuters onto alternative transport modes, such as buses, cars and trams. This could involve huge numbers of commuters, and any solution would need to consider commuters queuing requirements, how to get them to the replacement bus stops, how many replacement buses are required, how the additional buses and demand impacts existing traffic on the road network. And of course, each element of the plan must prioritise the safety of all those involved.

In such an example, the best way to accurately work out how many of the commuters you can shift across to alternative transport modes such as buses, cars and trams, is to model and test scenarios. Impacts of increased demand on active travel infrastructures also have to be considered. In our experience, many cities are vulnerable through a lack of transport contingency planning, or if plans are in place, they’re often not up-to-date or no longer valid for the current circumstances.

For cities looking to improve their ability to respond to the unexpected and unplanned, there are several key steps to consider.

Undertaking an audit of the existing policies and procedures that are in place for the various transport modes and networks is a great place to start, and this should lead into a gap analysis.

A gap analysis is the most important element of transport network problem-solving as it reveals what has been covered, what needs to be addressed and also which areas need refreshing.

Identifying all stakeholders is a key part of the gap analysis. You need to consider every stakeholder involved, such as councils, government departments, emergency services and all transport users. In particular, coordination of emergency services and transport provision is critical in any plan.

The possibility of major evacuations, such as in the event of a major security incident or natural disaster deserves particular focus, as these are likely to represent the largest traffic events.

If people are evacuating, then every kind of individual needs to be part of the plan including children, disabled and the elderly.

Once stakeholders are defined, possible risk and hazard scenarios are developed.  Scenarios and planned responses can be tested through desktop exercises.  These can range from small-scale facilitated discussions within an agency, to larger-scale multi-agency workshops, using facilitated discussion to test, develop and refine coordinated responses to possible unplanned events.  Desktop exercises help in ensuring that there is a coordinated working partnership in providing the most effective response for the public.

Through traffic and pedestrian modelling, it is possible to identify the impacts that a loss of infrastructure and introduction of temporary traffic management plans can have on specific locations, and across the network as a whole, and to test potential response plans/scenarios by analysing existing levels of traffic and future traffic growth.

The modelling of different response plans/scenarios can provide an indication of what may be the most appropriate response plan to be adopted.

For example, if a major bridge linking a city and suburbs was destroyed, the rebuild is likely to take a long time, so a medium to long-term plan would need to be in place. Traffic and pedestrian modelling can highlight to where the bridge traffic is likely to be diverted, if the alternative roads and footpaths can adequately and safely cater for the diverted traffic, and what additional services are needed.

Once plans are developed and adopted, it’s important to ensure the right people are across the right information. This may involve extracting the relevant parts of the plan for each stakeholder or physically training people where necessary so that they are aware of the agreed protocols and communications.

Such an approach involves developing and disseminating a communication framework for responsible authorities and stakeholders in dealing with unplanned events. Travel demand management and Intelligent Transport Systems can be utilised to ensure the demand is managed across the network and to ensure that the public are made aware of their transport options, should an unplanned event eventuate.

Major planned events such as festivals and sporting events also require robust and integrated contingency plans to be in place and often provide a catalyst to refine and update a city’s existing unplanned event responses.

While you can never guarantee 100 percent preparedness, it is possible to ensure you have an integrated and up-to-date suite of contingency protocols and plans in place for your transport network.

Ideally, you want to feel confident in their preparation and know that you have asked all the right questions. This includes ensuring the right people are aware of the possible scenarios and that they know what needs to be done and what their respective roles may be in any unplanned event.

And just as the environment and population continually changes, so should the plan.