Transport Canada rail line wildfire risk identification study

Changes in climate and weather patterns have increased the risk of wildfire damage to property, critical infrastructure, public safety, and to the environment across Canada (as well as internationally). With more than 48,000 route kilometres of track, Canada has one of the most extensive rail networks in the world, which is of vital importance to the Canadian economy and way of life, especially given the distribution of people and resources across Canada. The track within this network crosses through a variety of Canadian landscapes and vegetation types, moving from remote locations to populated areas with associated utilities and infrastructure.

Transport Canada's (TC) Rail Safety (RS) directorate works to evaluate the safety of the railway industry in Canada. Of particular concern is the susceptibility of rail assets within the track network to wildfire events. Recent wildfires have highlighted the risk fire poses to the railway system and in turn the environment, critical infrastructure, and public safety. TC/RS is working with various industry, academic, and government partners to address knowledge gaps related to wildfire risks posed to the railway system. TC seeks to account for this wildfire risk in its planning. This work represents an important initial step in understanding wildfire risks and spatial relationships to rail and other assets to inform decision-making.

In October 2022, a wildfire risk assessment study was initiated by Transport Canada. The focus of this study is wildfire risks associated with the railway system. These risks (and as infrastructure ages) are anticipated to be exacerbated by climate change, requiring the development of an assessment methodology informed by new insights to quantify this risk going forward.

The GHD Team was engaged by TC to develop a methodology that could be used to identify the risk profile of rail assets to wildfire within the rail network to aid in the planning and management of wildfire risk; and implement the methodology components on a selected region to ascertain the effectiveness of the methodology to assess the wildfire risks and impacts to the railway system within that region. The scope of work excludes the impact of wildfire on the environment and natural resources.

Given the limited 5-month duration of this project it was necessary to select a region within the Canadian rail network that was known to have available data to support the expeditious application of the wildfire risk assessment methodology. Through discussion and agreement with TC, the Kamloops Region of British Columbia was deemed appropriate to meet the project criteria.

GHD developed a methodology that could be used to identify the risk profile of rail assets within the Canadian rail network (to aid in the planning and management of wildfire risk) and applied this methodology to a selected region. GHD’s work has generated two key deliverables:

1. A general methodology for the risk assessment of wildfire events to stated regions of interest. This allows areas at risk to be identified (using a risk modelling framework and a fire growth model), and assets within these risk areas to be evaluated for potential impact from loss of asset services.
2. The application of this methodology to the Kamloops Region of interest.

The methodology GHD developed allows for a landscape level wildfire and asset risk assessment that can provide guidance to new and existing programs including:

• Prevention Program and Operational Wildfire Response;
• Primary, Secondary and Tertiary asset vulnerability assessment and wildfire mitigation

The wildfire and asset risk modelling approach GHD utilized has the potential to guide future wildfire planning and management decisions subject to the stated assumptions and the limitations noted. GHD’s wildfire and asset risk modeling provides a framework for risk identification, risk analysis and risk evaluation as follows:

1. Risk identification - Process of finding, recognizing and describing risks.
2. Risk analysis - Process to comprehend the nature of risk and to determine the level of risk.
3. Risk evaluation - Process of comparing the results of risk analysis with risk criteria (e.g., consequence) to determine whether the risk is acceptable or tolerable.

Application and use of the methodology can be focused on a number of key areas including but not limited to the following:

• Improve pre-suppression preparedness through the development and use of advanced support tools.
• Engage Indigenous people in mitigations activities including prevention measures on and around First Nations Reserves.
• Enhance prevention measures to aggressively target human-caused ignitions related to recreation and off-road vehicle use (both recreational and industrial).
• Enhance overall coordination with industry partners and other associated jurisdictions. Integrate risk results into municipal planning such as infrastructure hardening, evacuation planning, defensible space requirements.
• Demonstrate linkages to resource management outcomes.