Financial viability of battery-electric and hydrogen technology for the Canadian trucking industry
At a glance
Transport Canada aimed to evaluate the feasibility of switching four different types of fleets from using Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles to Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs) for both Battery-Electric and Hydrogen technologies. The focus was on determining the break-even point where the reduced operational costs of ZEVs would surpass the higher initial capital costs of these new vehicles. The goal was also to understand the economies of scale and identify the appropriate procurement model and optimal fleet sizes.
The challenge
Transport Canada planned this analysis for specific regions of Canada, including British Columbia, Prairies, and Central Canada (ON and QC). Each region has unique conditions regarding terrain, weather, electricity pricing regimes, subsidies, and existing infrastructure. This study intended to discern the impact of these conditions by developing four unique ‘hypothetical’ fleets which captured the general requirements and nuances of real-life fleets.
Our response
The hypothetical fleet was processed via the GHD ZEVOTM (Zero Emissions Vehicle Optimization) tool, which provided the techno-economic reality of transitioning these vehicles from a financial breakeven, environmental, and energy perspectives.
Data Validation
GHD collected insights into existing medium and heavy duty (MD/HD) ZEV manufacturers and how they could be applied to this specific project. Collaboratively with Transport Canada, we determined the variables and parameters that would be examined through the sensitivity analysis and framed the study by understanding the principles of Transport Canada stakeholders, which would be prospective long-haul trucking companies.
A workshop was conducted to create the hypothetical fleets in collaboration with Transport Canada and four (4) fleet cases were developed along with their predicted routes:
- Case 1: Return-To-Base Fleet-Medium Duty-Urban Haul (primarily depot charging, e.g. courier company)
- Case 2: Return-To-Base Fleet-Heavy Duty- Regional (primarily depot charging, e.g. retailer with private fleet)
- Case 3: Long-Haul owner-operator (depot and mid-route public station charging)
- Case 4: Long-Haul owner-operator (mid-route public station charging only)
Scenario Development
Once the fleet cases were established, GHD utilized ZEVO to conduct a fleet and service assessment on all four fleet cases for all three pre-selected regions of Canada. The fleet assessment involved re-creating fleet data, including fuel usage, fuel efficiency, maintenance cost, insurance, purchase price of vehicles, and others. The service assessment utilized hypothetical vehicle routes and conducted range modelling for the battery-electric option, considering traffic conditions, vehicle characteristics, topography (mountainous terrain vs. flat), and various weather scenarios. Three unique weather scenarios were considered for each region, including average weather, highest/lowest average month, and extreme highest/lowest temperature, and using this assessment, we identified on-route charging requirements regarding charger locations and power demands.
The impact
The outputs from the analysis were utilized to draw conclusions regarding economies of scale, procurement size, and profitability using a break-even assessment. We summarized the results through Power BI and a final report. The analyses and report will provide Transport Canada with a data backed analyses that will help them optimize their policies and grants to enable uptake of EVs and hydrogen trucks across Canada and help Canada achieve its goal of carbon neutrality by 2050.