Constant technological, environmental, and social change means transport in our cities is shifting rapidly and unpredictably, and with the rise of micro-mobility transport modes like bike and scooter share schemes, our transport networks are also becoming increasingly complex.
To create dynamic urban ecosystems that are fit for those living and working in them, transport authorities need ways of planning that are adaptable to change.
An uncertain future
Growing populations are increasing demand on our cities’ transport infrastructure, and local authorities need to plan for how their region may evolve in the future.
This has traditionally been done by examining past data and extrapolating predictions for the future of, for example, population density. However, this method does not consider changeable variables, such as technological advancements and climate change.
As a result, many local authorities are investing in infrastructure that does not match the future that it was planned for. Taxpayer money is wasted, and the resulting infrastructure does not serve the population as it was intended to.
Recognising how rapidly things can change, how do we stop trying to plan for the future we think is most likely? How can we, instead, take a flexible approach to transport planning, which allows for multiple futures?
Planning for uncertainty
Change, especially at the rapid rate that our cities are now experiencing, creates uncertainty, and uncertainty is difficult to plan for. There are tools available however, that reduce uncertainty by predicting a number of possible outcomes, such as scenario planning.
This method considers multiple parameters, and plans for many possible outcomes as a result. Initially used by the military, scenario planning accommodates possible impacts of technological, social, environmental, and economic changes, and is now commonly applied to business planning.
Taking this approach when planning transport infrastructure, will serve communities well in the future, no matter what that future may look like.
Scenario planning is dynamic, considering climate, population, land use, and technological changes.
We helped our client review their existing data sources, understand social service benchmarks, metrics and baselines, and determine what existing data was suitable for modelling.
Data from a variety of sources, including current and forecasted population and infrastructure plans, created an enormous quantity of information. We collaborated to develop an open platform for modelling, querying, analysing, reporting and visualising data, allowing for quick visualisation and assessment of planning policies against a range of possible futures.
Our client used this data to develop algorithms to model access to public spaces and infrastructure, and congestion on footpaths. These were presented via a user-friendly tool that visually demonstrates the impacts of population growth on infrastructure across the city, in easy-to-understand ways.
The tool was developed using an open platform which can easily be adapted to model supply and demand of additional transport infrastructure, such as train or bus networks. It remains available for the client to re-use, and can be adapted to consider changes to the local climate and population.
Dynamic, adaptable, and fit-for-purpose
Traditional planning techniques using historical data extrapolation are limiting urban transport infrastructure planning. Scenario planning offers a way to plan transport infrastructure that considers the complexities of various future scenarios.
Existing platforms that can process volumes of data can be leveraged to apply scenario planning to transport infrastructure. Looking ahead, this will create dynamic transport systems that are fit for a changeable future, and provide ongoing benefit to future communities.
For more information, connect with our professional:
Pradip Mohan
Senior Data Architect
+64 9 370 8242
Email Pradip Mohan